Recent Report Points to Bitcoin Futures CME Premiums on Decline
There is a decline in premiums for the CME Bitcoin Futures contracts traded on a monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual basis relative to their week-on-week average. This finding is according to a recently compiled report by Arcane Research.
Slated for an end of March expiry, these contracts saw a 0.60% CME increase and a 1.19% premium increase on unregulated exchanges. The June 2020 contracts on the other hand saw a drop of 2.71% and 3.29% premium and CME on other exchanges respectively.
This comes as a shock, more so if the fact that the June contracts will be after the halving of the Bitcoin block is put in mind. As a result of block rewards reduction, the anticipation is of a price rise
The report notes that the March premium rates were as high as those of June last year as recently as 2 weeks ago. But current data points to high pullbacks of March rates, indicating huge drops in quarterly contract premiums.
Annualized premiums on both regulated and unregulated exchanges declined shortly after being 25% over thanks to Bitcoin’s high on the 14th of February 2020. The BTC price dropped to the $8,600 range, followed by a 7% drop in the premium rates for March 2020 contracts. The rate is lower than the previous average.
Wait and See Tone
In light of the huge hit on premium rates thanks to the BTC price pullback, the report has a wait and see tone. It notes that only time will tell if this is an overreaction or if traders will truly be less bullish for the months ahead.