Kyle Samani Says Bitcoin Halving is ‘objectively bullish’
Kyle Samani is a joint founder of Multicoin Capital. In recent times, he tweeted about the imminent BTC halving event.
0/ Some thoughts on the BTC halvening
TLDR – it is *extremely* bullish
There will probably be lots of volatility +/- 60 days the halvening, but that is not the point of the this thread
— Kyle Samani (@KyleSamani) January 4, 2020
Samani noted that most discussion concerning the ‘Efficient Market Hypothesis’ as regards BTC halving event is “academic nonsense.” Price movement to the upside or downside is what matters, he added.
According to him, BTC could be more volatile “+/- 60 days” from the halving event. Nevertheless, he acknowledged his inability to explain further on that front. He likewise mentioned that “[they] have good reason to believe there will be fewer dollars across the spread to sell” following the event.
“Therefore, for every dollar of marginal demand post-halvening, that dollar pushes the price up further than pre-halvening, because there is less selling pressure.”
Contrariwise, if the fresh net dollars for Bitcoin decline by over 50 percent after halving, then the above will be untrue. The ‘Efficient Market Hypothesis’ maintains that the price of Bitcoin would be bid up before the time, to the extent that the amount of net new capital would decline by almost 50 percent. Samani did not agree with the hypothesis.
He believes that there will be inflow of fresh capital following the lifting of structural limitations to the inflow. He noted the lack of sensitivity towards valuation by those buyers and that they won’t care about BTC price when they eventually buy as it is not in their mandate.
He further said that the halving is “objectively bullish.” He noted three things: big capital is finding it easier to enter; big capital won’t care about BTC price when it enters, and that the issuance is being cut by 50 percent.
“Halvening is mega bullish for BTC in the medium to long term Leading into, and coming out of, the halvening…. expect some vol :)”
Featured image courtesy of Coindesk. Source: Cryptopress