Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Declines, Is a Price Downtrend Imminent?
Whenever mining difficulty decreases, it could be a sign of a forthcoming price decline. Bitcoin was brutally rejected at $10,400 price level on June 2 leading to an 11 percent decline in minutes and market participants are focused on BTC’s immediate move.
Bitcoin halving is the most talked-about event so far in 2020 and a month has passed since supply was reduced. After the successful halving, numerous inefficient miners were compelled to stop mining thereby leading to a decline in Bitcoin network’s hashing power.
Nevertheless, Blockware Solutions noted that those who operate the older Antminer S9s and have access to cheap electricity can still afford to continue mining. Based on their estimation, S9s remain a sizable force and are up to 30 percent of the network.
In the words of Blockware Solutions CEO, Matt D’Souza, a fragile equilibrium exists between Bitcoin price and operation of older mining equipment. The price of Bitcoin after halving will determine the survival of the remaining S9 operators, he said.
“If Bitcoin is below $9,000, then margins will be poor for miners. If Bitcoin remains at $7,200, then many miners will need to shut off. It will likely be about 27%–35% of the network if Bitcoin remains below 9,000 for several weeks post-halving.”
Nonetheless, the reduction in difficulty yesterday can save the S9 operators. For every 2,016 blocks or two weeks, there is always an adjustment in mining difficulty in a self-sustaining process.
In Nov. 19, 2019, a price downtrend ensued after mining difficulty reduced and the same happened on February 20. However, the downtrend started prior to the downward adjustment in difficulty.
Right now, Bitcoin price is still in an uptrend, so we can conclude that the correlation between price and difficulty at the moment is weak but anything can happen because Bitcoin is unpredictable and the macro outlook is uncertain.