Bitcoin Bear Market May Extend, Says Volume Analysis

News / 13.05.2020

Bitcoin reward halving has happened and the bull market should be ready to swing into action. However, the recent rally’s volume profile could bring about declining moves which might suggest Bitcoin returning to an extended seller market.

It is commonly said in the traditional markets that volume precedes price, but Bitcoin traders may not be familiar with it. This means smart money usually takes positions early, which does not always reflect price movements. Rather, trading volume can offer an early signal that something further is happening.

Volume is a critical factor to consider knowing whether a chart pattern is valid or not. Most times, specific volume profiles match particular chart patterns. Trading volumes help to know the realness of breakouts.

Pre-halving, Bitcoin rallied from below $3.8k to over $10k with the volume profile reducing throughout. The volume of various markets was analyzed and it was revealed that a decrease in volume while prices rise is a selling signal.

This is worse for Bitcoin as there is a close resemblance between the volume profile and price rise and the price action prior to a decline that happened in the middle of 2014.

Based on the current volume pattern, it seems the leading cryptocurrency is vulnerable to a fresh fall, and possibly, an even longer seller market.

In April, Bitcoin price was able to close as a bullish engulfing candle and its block reward halving occurred; hence, we anticipate a bull market to be initiated.

However, according to a popular expert on chart pattern, downtrends usually continue after the formation of such candles in a bear market.

Another factor of consideration is the capitulation of inefficient miners as the cost of production is now double. This is such that even the biggest cryptocurrency supporters anticipate a serious decline now.

Miners’ capitulation might take Bitcoin even lower to its eventual bottom and limit the possibilities of any fresh bull run.

Source: Cryptopress.

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Sudarshan M is a long time crypto-enthusiast. Pulled in by bitcoin early on, it did not take long for Sudarshan to divert all of his academic attention from business studies to blockchain by doing his Masters and eventually pursuing his PhD in the subject.