Bitcoin Analyst Says Stock-to-Flow Model Not Appropriate for Price Prediction
Many Bitcoin enthusiasts have robust support for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used for the prediction of Bitcoin prices. According to the model’s forecast, Bitcoin price will become more than $100k by 2021.
Nevertheless, according to some analysts, the model use for Bitcoin is untoward. Their argument is that Bitcoin’s supply is fixed; hence the model is unable to dictate market movements. An analyst known as Hugo Nguyen on Twitter tweeted about the statements by Coinmetrics founder Nic Carter on the viewpoint.
According to the S2F model’s premise, flow of a commodity is influenced by supply and demand. That is, a commodity’s price movement is dictated by its supply and demand.
Nevertheless, according to the analysis by Carter, the Bitcoin’s flow is effectively zero. This viewpoint assumes that cryptocurrency market participants know that Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million BTC. Hence, there will be no increasing Bitcoin supply. That is, Bitcoin’s release is similar to stock vesting but not created like other commodities.
Since the supply of Bitcoin is fixed, demand is the only possible market determiner. This is showing that Bitcoin’s monetary inflation rate is zero.
If we go by the analysis of Carter, then all Bitcoin halving (past and imminent) are effectively meaningless events. Interestingly, over 86 percent of all supply (more than 18.3 million BTC) has already been mined. Halving miner reward by 50 percent brings down the speed of vesting but in a very small way.
Due to a small change, halving effects are more associated with miners than with monetary supply and demand. More pressure will be on miners due to the event and they will need to assess cost-benefits for continuous production.
Following Carter’s analysis, the halving will have little impact on price. Hence, investors need to pay attention to changes in demand towards the determination of price movement.